In March 2025, Macquarie analysts said gold could peak as high as $3,500 an ounce in the third quarter of 2025, averaging about $3,150 for the quarter.1 Gold actually moved faster: it touched $3,500 in April and averaged about $3,457 in Q3 2025.34
Key takeaways
- As of March 13, 2025, Macquarie forecast a Q3 2025 gold peak of $3,500 and a quarterly average of $3,150.1
- Macquarie tied the outlook to demand for an asset with no credit or counterparty risk, plus tariffs, geopolitics, and U.S. deficit worries.1
- Other banks were also raising targets at the time, including Goldman Sachs at $3,100 for end-2025.2
- Spot gold first hit $3,500 on April 22, 2025, a full quarter ahead of Macquarie’s timeline.3
- The LBMA gold price averaged about $3,457 in Q3 2025, well above Macquarie’s $3,150 average forecast.4
- Forecasts are opinions, not guarantees. Even a call that proves too cautious says little about where prices go next.
What did Macquarie predict for gold in Q3 2025?
On March 13, 2025, Macquarie projected that gold’s quarterly average would peak at $3,150 in Q3 2025, with prices possibly reaching $3,500 an ounce at some point in that quarter.1
Bloomberg first reported the call under the headline this post shares.5 At the time, spot gold was about $2,967 and setting new records.1
Macquarie also raised its long-term real gold price outlook to $2,250 from $2,000.1 In other words, the bank saw the 2025 spike as stronger than its long-run baseline.
Why did Macquarie expect gold to rise?
Macquarie said gold’s strength came mostly from investors and official institutions paying more for an asset with no credit or counterparty risk.1
The bank pointed to several supporting factors:1
- Geopolitical uncertainty and new U.S. tariff announcements
- Inflation expectations and pressure on real interest rates
- Concern about U.S. fiscal deficits and the long-term value of paper assets
Central bank buying was another key driver. Goldman Sachs estimated in February 2025 that central banks were buying about 50 tonnes a month.2
How did other banks’ forecasts compare?
In early 2025, most major banks were raising their gold targets, but Macquarie’s $3,500 peak was among the most aggressive near-term calls.
| Firm | Forecast | Date issued |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | $3,000 in the near term (about three months) | February 20256 |
| Goldman Sachs | $3,100 by end-2025 (up from $2,890) | February 17, 20252 |
| RBC Capital Markets | $2,844 average for 2025; $3,111 for 2026 | March 13, 20251 |
| Macquarie | $3,150 Q3 2025 average; possible $3,500 peak | March 13, 20251 |
All of these targets were passed in 2025. That’s a reminder that forecasts can be too cautious just as easily as too bold.
What’s happened since?
Gold beat Macquarie’s timeline and its average forecast: it reached $3,500 in April 2025, averaged about $3,457 in Q3, and topped $3,800 by late September 2025.347
- April 22, 2025: spot gold hit $3,500.05 as the dollar weakened and trade-war worries grew.3
- Q3 2025: the LBMA gold price set 13 new all-time highs and averaged $3,456.54. Central banks bought 220 tonnes during the quarter.4
- September 29, 2025: spot gold passed $3,800 on government-shutdown fears and expectations of Fed rate cuts.7
- January 2026: gold went past $5,000 before a sharp pullback.8
- February 2026: Macquarie raised its 2026 average forecast to $4,323, citing extreme volatility.9
Check today’s prices on our live gold and silver charts.
What does this mean for precious metals and IRA investors?
The lesson isn’t that one forecast was right or wrong. The same forces Macquarie cited, including counterparty risk, deficits, and central bank demand, are why many investors hold some gold for the long term.
- Treat forecasts as context, not timing signals. Even professional targets are regularly missed in both directions.
- Think in allocations. Most long-term investors hold metals as one part of a diversified portfolio, not the whole of it.
- Expect volatility. The sharp swings in early 2026 show that gold can fall quickly as well as rise.
- Consider the account type. A gold IRA lets you hold physical metals with retirement-account tax treatment.
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Did gold reach $3,500 in the third quarter of 2025?
Yes, and earlier than expected. Spot gold first hit $3,500 on April 22, 2025, during the second quarter. It then averaged about $3,457 in Q3 2025 and topped $3,800 by late September.
What did Macquarie forecast for gold in March 2025?
On March 13, 2025, Macquarie projected a Q3 2025 quarterly average of $3,150 an ounce with a possible peak of $3,500. It also raised its long-term real gold price outlook to $2,250 from $2,000.
Why did Macquarie expect gold prices to rise?
Macquarie said investors and official institutions were more willing to pay for gold’s lack of credit or counterparty risk. It also cited geopolitical uncertainty, U.S. tariffs, inflation expectations, and concern about U.S. deficits.
Are bank gold price forecasts reliable?
Bank forecasts are informed opinions, not guarantees. In 2025, most major banks’ gold targets were passed well ahead of schedule, and in early 2026 prices swung sharply in both directions. They’re best used as context rather than as timing signals.
How can I hold gold in a retirement account?
You can open a self-directed gold IRA that holds IRS-approved physical bullion in an approved depository. Most people fund one by transferring or rolling over money from an existing IRA or 401(k).
About the author: John Murphy
[[ROLE AT ANTHEM GOLD GROUP]]. [[X YEARS]] of experience in [[precious metals / retirement planning / financial writing]]. [[One sentence on relevant background, e.g., number of clients helped, credentials, publications]].- Investing.com: Macquarie, RBC lift their gold price forecasts (March 13, 2025)
- Reuters via Investing.com: Goldman Sachs raises year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 (February 17, 2025)
- MINING.COM: Gold price hits $3,500 on flight to safe haven (April 22, 2025)
- World Gold Council: Gold Demand Trends Q3 2025
- Bloomberg: Gold May Rise as High as $3,500 in Third Quarter, Macquarie Says (March 13, 2025)
- Reuters via U.S. News: Gold prices to remain up, reaching $3,000/oz in near term, says Citi (February 6, 2025)
- The National: Gold soars past record $3,800 (September 29, 2025)
- CBS News: What is the highest gold price in history? (February 24, 2026)
- Reuters via Investing.com: Macquarie hikes gold forecasts for 2026 (February 5, 2026)
This article is for general education only and isn’t tax, legal, or investment advice. Anthem Gold Group is not a licensed financial advisor. Consult a qualified professional before making retirement decisions.
