On March 16, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined to guarantee that the U.S. would avoid a recession, saying there are “no guarantees” as tariff worries rattled markets. The economy shrank in the first quarter of 2025 but rebounded strongly in the second, and no recession has been declared.134
Key takeaways
- Bessent made the remarks in an NBC Meet the Press interview on March 16, 2025.1
- Days earlier, on March 13, 2025, the S&P 500 closed 10.1% below its February 19 record, confirming a correction.2
- Gold rose above $3,000 an ounce for the first time on March 14, 2025.6
- Real GDP fell at a 0.5% annual rate in Q1 2025, then grew at 3.8% in Q2.34
- Recession risk is never zero, which is why many savers diversify rather than try to time the economy.
What did Treasury Secretary Bessent say about a recession?
Asked on NBC’s Meet the Press whether he could guarantee no recession, Bessent said there were no guarantees, pointing to unforeseen shocks like COVID.1
He argued that the administration’s policies were meant to wean the economy off heavy government spending and that an adjustment didn’t have to mean a downturn.1 Newsweek’s coverage at the time noted that President Trump and Vice President Vance had also declined to rule out a recession that month.7
Why were people worried about a recession in March 2025?
Recession fears rose in early 2025 because tariff announcements and reversals unsettled markets, stocks fell sharply, and job growth slowed.
- Stock market correction: the S&P 500 closed 10.1% below its February 19 record on March 13, 2025.2
- Trade uncertainty: new and threatened tariffs weighed on business and consumer sentiment.2
- Labor market: the February 2025 jobs report showed slower hiring and a slight rise in unemployment, per Newsweek.7
What actually counts as a recession?
In the U.S., the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a significant, widespread decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.5
The most recent U.S. recession ran from a February 2020 peak to an April 2020 trough.5
What’s happened since?
The economy contracted in early 2025 but rebounded in the spring, and gold rallied to new records before pulling back.349
| Period | What happened |
|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | Real GDP fell at a 0.5% annual rate3 |
| Q2 2025 | Real GDP grew at a 3.8% annual rate4 |
| Late January 2026 | Gold set a record above $5,500 an ounce9 |
| September 16, 2026 | Fed raised rates 0.25 point to 3.75%–4.00%, citing elevated inflation8 |
One negative quarter didn’t amount to a recession by NBER’s standard. The broader point stands: officials can’t promise the economy’s path.
How does gold tend to behave when recession fears rise?
Gold has often drawn safe-haven demand during periods of economic and market stress, as it did in March 2025, but it doesn’t rise in every downturn.
Gold first broke above $3,000 an ounce on March 14, 2025, the same week stocks entered correction territory.6 Its later climb and pullback show that gold can be volatile too. Track it on our live gold price charts.
What can savers do about recession risk?
Since no one can guarantee or time a recession, the practical step is to build a diversified plan you can stick with through good and bad markets.
- Review your concentration. Check how much of your savings depends on stocks alone.
- Keep an emergency cushion. Cash reserves help you avoid selling at a low.
- Consider diversifiers. Some investors add a modest allocation to physical metals through a self-directed IRA. See our Gold IRA guide and step-by-step funding guide.
- Avoid panic moves. Headlines change quickly; long-term plans shouldn’t.
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What did Scott Bessent say about a recession?
On March 16, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC’s Meet the Press there were no guarantees the U.S. would avoid a recession. He cited unpredictable shocks like COVID. He also said the administration’s policies were meant to be durable and that an adjustment need not cause a downturn.
Did the U.S. go into a recession in 2025?
No recession has been declared for 2025. Real GDP fell at a 0.5% annual rate in the first quarter, then grew at a 3.8% rate in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The NBER makes the official call in the U.S.
Who decides when the U.S. is in a recession?
The National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. It looks at the depth, breadth, and duration of a decline across many indicators. The two-negative-quarters rule is only a rough shorthand.
Is a stock market correction the same as a recession?
No. A correction is a stock market decline of 10% or more from a recent high. A recession is a broad, sustained drop in economic activity. Stocks can fall without a recession, and vice versa.
Does gold go up in a recession?
Gold has often attracted safe-haven demand during economic stress, but it doesn’t rise in every downturn. Its price can be volatile and can fall. Most investors use gold as a diversifier rather than a guaranteed hedge.
About the author: John Murphy
[[ROLE AT ANTHEM GOLD GROUP]]. [[X YEARS]] of experience in [[precious metals / retirement planning / financial writing]]. [[One sentence on relevant background, e.g., number of clients helped, credentials, publications]].- Reuters via WTVB: Bessent says there are ‘no guarantees’ there will not be a US recession (March 16, 2025)
- Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 confirms correction from February high as tariffs weigh
- BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate)
- BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate)
- NBER: Business Cycle Dating
- Fox Business: Gold price rises above $3,000 an ounce for first time
- Newsweek: Trump Official Says ‘No Guarantees’ US Will Avoid Recession (March 2025)
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- CBS News: What is the highest gold price in history?
This article is for general education only and isn’t tax, legal, or investment advice. Anthem Gold Group is not a licensed financial advisor. Consult a qualified professional before making retirement decisions.
